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Re the New York Gold Expo
We used to attend the free hard money expos with Harry Brown, Doug Casey, Adrian Day, Paul Erdman et al, and saw crowded frothy character at tops.
Clearly we may not be there yet with the new cast of characters
and Robert Prechter. Neither may we be at the golden bottom or silver launching pad where we bought last fall. Where is the widespread desperation or disbelief folks? There are still far more silver and gold calf true believers than gold and silver bears.
Again we cite COT stats showing Silver commercials double short and
adding to shorts on strength, largest silver traders triple short. We
see similar excesses of gold shorts double the longs. Until these
significant numbers reflecting the tracks of the big money reverse, the precious metals elevator/escalator may continue running down.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxlof.htm
NEM or $HUI could breakout above 56.86 and 519.60 on the weekly.
They are not there yet. Stocks can look ahead a year while a lot can happen in the derivatives and physicals meantime.
Re COMEX defaulting, they may pay off in cash or change delivery rules if they can’t get the gold, platinum or silver. No big deal. Quasi
government agencies like CFTA, FED, FNM, FRE, SEC default. The US
Treasury Mint defaulted when it removed copper, gold and silver backing from US currency and coin and made gold contracts illegal.
Presidencies also defaulted on the Constitution when they let European Central Bank usury funny money replace real money with value to take over the American economy.
Re speculative flight from a dollar losing AAA status into silver and
gold, most big capital market folks, including the late Milton Friedman and previous Fed Chair, confessed a hard time imagining $12 T in Treasury Debt stampeding into $40,000/oz gold or higher silver or platinum, with widespread industrial uses.
Big money may continue moving into dividend equities with higher
interest rates and lower P/Es for awhile, until the golden/silver/copper caution light bulb goes on again, maybe this fall. We may have more bankruptcies, defaults and deflation at least until then.
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