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Noah and the Ark
Matthew 13 (King James Version)
3And he spake many things unto them in parables, saying, Behold, a sower went forth to sow;
4And when he sowed, some seeds fell by the way side, and the fowls came and devoured them up:
5Some fell upon stony places, where they had not much earth: and forthwith they sprung up, because they had no deepness of earth:
6And when the sun was up, they were scorched; and because they had no root, they withered away.
7And some fell among thorns; and the thorns sprung up, and choked them:
8But other fell into good ground, and brought forth fruit, some an hundredfold, some sixtyfold, some thirtyfold.
Merrill mentor and All-American market analyst Bob Farrell used to say: too many people buy and hold at the top, but trade in and out at the rounded bottom. He foresaw a long secular bear market in equities, as did Mark Faber, Bill Fleckenstein, Jeremy Grantham, Bob Prechter, Jim Rogers, Gary Shilling and George Soros.
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetter_ALL_3Q08.pdf
We may currently be somewhere in-between the big top, big drop and big bottom, with a long way yet to go down and slow down.
Many hear or see bullish advisers and headlines without a stake in following their own strong but wrong advice.
High hope, excessive optimism, pollyanna prognostications abound, particularly at year end. Many recommend staying in bonds, commodities, land, property or the stocks for the long term. Ouch.
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