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Noah and the Ark
On Friday 12 December 2008 the worm turned, the reason for early release of Winter Outlook eLetter.
Iranian and Russian banks and economies are described in freefall since oil dropped 73% from 147.90 on Tuesday 1 July 2008 to 40.50 on Friday 5 December 2008. They are not the only ones.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$WTIC
Alternative green energy, Record Brazilian offshore ultra deep projects, vast Canadian Tar Sands and Saudi oil recovery projects require higher priced oil, credit plus scarce oil equipment to develop and produce.
Arthur Burns, World Bank economist, forsees 2009 global commodity and oil demand continuing to fall in 2009 for a second year, for the first time in 30 years.
http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/dec/11ft-global-demand-for-oil-to-plummet.htm
Recall what it was like in 1979? Rising interest rates and contracting economy: Stagflation. Volatile markets declined in real terms.
We remind readers things look best at the top and worst at the bottom. Many people panicked into assets near the top, and out of markets near the bottom, only to regret it. We listen to the markets and they look forward!
The Dow fell 48% from 14, 279.96 highs on Thursday 11 October 2007, then rebounded 21% above 7392.27 lows Friday 21 November 2008. http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$INDU
The Housing index fell 81% from 587.32 on Friday 29 July 2005 (293.66 adjusted for a 2:1 split on 1 February 2006) and rebounded 68% from Friday 21 November lows of 55.81.
The CEO of Wells Fargo and Foreclosure.com headlines claim housing may be bottoming. A bear market rally does not a bull market make.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$HGX
http://www.reuters.com/article/mergersNews/idUSN1031109620081210
http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/stories/2008/12/08/daily21.html
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