Jubilee Prosperity

Every Century has the Naughties – those years beginning with Zero, 2000 to 2009, 1900 to 1909 and 1800 to 1809. Those that do not know history may be doomed to repeat it. The past is not always prologue, but often enough to value the wisdom of experience.

Most adults from 1900 to 1910 are no longer with us to share their sage insights and perspective. We are blessed with abundant historical economic data to light the way, with the usual caveat that past performance is no absolute guarantee of future results.

We tip our hat to Dr Robert McHugh at https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/Default.asp

Here is a chart of the market’s performance from 1901 to date:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1900.html

We see that each decade’s year ending in zero was a negative year for stock performance.

The exception was 1950, which ended a two-decade Depression from 1929 to 1949. In particular, a century ago, 1910, was a tough year, falling some -27% and heralding a four-year decline in the market punctuated by volatile reversals.

A half century ago, 1960, was likewise a tough year, with a -21% bear market lasting two years and a –27% decline preceded by a new high.

We point these out not so much as to forecast, as we rarely do on purpose, but to consider the unconsidered possibilities.

In particular, we like to watch what the biggest money does. Our $2000 a year Big4 Weekly Asset Allocation Report does this with a MoneyBack Guarantee if the unleveraged ideas do not outperform the cost in one year. Returns have ranged from 1% to 7600%. As is often the case with financial titans, their unadvertised behavior may be contrary to the headlines. Titans require much more patience than John Q Public to gradually accumulate and distribute immense positions.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, December 20th, 2009 at 11:27 am and is filed under Market Psychology. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.