Deflation and Long-Term Market Trends from 2000 to 2030
Fears about agricultural, biological, communications, energy and military technologies may lead to restrictions on its development. Politics may become far more apathetic, chaotic, polarized, splintered, radical or terrorist with occasional charismatic exceptions that betray great expectations. Law and order, Medicare and Social Security in current forms may fail. The U.S. may threaten and attack more countries to defuse attention from poverty and starvation at home. More countries may oppose U.S. interests and chose cooperation with Brazil, China, Pakistan or India instead. Third World War terrorism for hire may escalate on all continents. The USA may increase restrictions on immigration and emigration. The USA may require National ID and bureaucratic permissions for education, financial transactions or all travel. The USA may implement a transaction tax to increase compliance by tax resisters. Both anti-government sentiment and patriotism may grow into powerful emotional forces or militia. Openness and transparency may give way to secrecy. Spies and secret social organizations may have increased standing and power. The U.S. may accelerate its trend toward socialism and technocracy. Opposition to that trend may be futile if vigorous. Suspicion or hatred of foreigners or strangers may increase around the globe. Nations may tend away from democratic, liberal, representative governments toward totalitarian dictatorships. The Drug War may turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs may be decriminalized as regulatory authorities break down or fail. Government may attempt to ration goods and services in which it is or becomes involved with bailouts (such as air, automobiles, communications, credit, drugs, energy, food, healthcare, insurance, security or water). International travel may be restricted by statute or dangerous conditions. The U.S. and state governments may finish their takeover and demolition of the medical industry as third party payments fail.
Third parties may gain political clout and win local elections. Constitutionalists, Libertarians, Greens and others may capture many local offices and at least one state government. At least one of the two major parties may disappear or re-form. Other Social Trends Social groups, including associations, classes, economic, industrial, legal, political, professional, religious, genders and unions, may polarize and splinter further. That is, they may polarize internally and with respect to opposing groups. The birth rate may continue to fall in the U.S. and Europe until the bear market in social mood (indicated by the downtrend in stock prices) ends. Spirituality may become increasingly popular. Its advocates may become increasingly passionate. Religious intolerance may increase. Beliefs in channeling, magic and superstition may increase. Science may be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes. Epidemics may increase in number and severity. Malaria and tropical invasive diseases, animals and plants may return to the U.S. DDT may be re-legalized. Sex and sugar may no longer be the sizzle that sells. Films and 3-D games may break new ground in horror and violence, with themes that may include demon possession, sadism, suicide, snuff, terror, torture or zombies. Brutal bread and gladiator circuses may be introduced and gain popularity as demeaning reality shows. Family-fare feature cartoons and channels and themes may fall in popularity, and parks and studios may stop marketing them. Environmentalists may become militant and intentionally polluting as global warming becomes global cooling. Professional sports may suffer decline and difficulties. New record performances by individuals may become rare. No team may have a “dynasty” during the bear market. Leagues may consolidate and restructure. Attendance and viewership may fall. Salaries may decrease. Stadiums may close.










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